Land Use in Maine: Determinants of Past Trends and Projections of Future Changes

About 90 percent of the land in Maine is in forests. We analyzed past land use trends in Maine and developed projections of future land use. Since the 1950s, the area of forest in Maine has increased by almost 400,000 acres; however, the trends differ among ownerships, as the area of nonindustrial private timberland declined by 800,000 acres since 1950, while private industrial area rose by 681,000 acres. We used econometric analyses to identify variables affecting land allocation, such as population density. Estimated equations were used to generate decadal land use projections to 2050. Our projections showed that private timberland area will decline by almost 3 percent by 2050, with urban areas increasing by 56 percent. We examined past area trends for the major land uses in Maine as a basis for developing projection models of future areas by forest ownership. This study provides land use projections as input to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service's periodic efforts to assess future trends in the Nation's forest resources, in accordance with the 1974 Resources Planning Act. Since the 1950s, the area of forest land in Maine has increased by almost 400,000 acres, while the area of crop and pasture land has declined by about 900,000 acres. The increase in forest area is partially due to the natural reversion of agricultural land to trees. In contrast to most states, the area of urban land in Maine has remained fairly stable over the past several decades, at about 2.5 percent of total land area. Private owners control 96 percent of the timberland in Maine, with slightly less than half in private industrial ownership. The area of private industrial timberland has declined by almost 960,000 acres since the 1970s, while nonindustrial private area increased by 680,000 acres. Our area projections indicated that private timberland area will decline by almost 3 percent by 2050. This change would reduce the land available for timber production and other forest-based ecosystem goods and services. We also projected continuing declines in agricultural areas. Maine's population is projected to increase by 16 percent, which would result in urban land increases of 56 percent by 2050. The largest urban area increases are predicted for counties in southern and central Maine. Our results supported theoretical and empirical findings that land use patterns are determined by relative rents and land quality. Land tends to be allocated to the use providing the highest …